Breaking down the interesting scenarios in play at the NBA Draft Lottery

The 14 teams that failed to make the playoffs are assigned odds to obtain one of the top three picks. The team with the worst record has the highest chance of landing a higher pick, and so on.

After the top three selections are determined, the remainder of the lottery order is in inverse order of win-loss record for the leftover teams.

The picks are assigned by each team having a certain number of four-number combinations. Those combinations are randomly drawn from 14 individual numbered ping pong balls, picked out of a standard lottery machine in a private room before the broadcast of the results.

The teams with the highest odds are the Phoenix Suns, who have a 25 per cent chance of winning the lottery and a 64.2 per cent chance at the top-three; the Memphis Grizzlies, who have a 19.9 per cent chance of winning and a 55.8 per cent chance at the top-three; and the Dallas Mavericks, who have a 13.8 per cent chance of winning a 42.6 per cent chance at the top-three.

As far as the prospects available in this year’s draft class, there are several promising players who could be franchise cornerstones, including Real Madrid playmaker Luka Doncic, Arizona centre Deandre Ayton, Michigan State big man Jaren Jackson Jr, Duke forward Marvin Bagley, Texas centre Mo Bamba and Oklahoma guard Trae Young.

As mentioned, the stakes are sky high and no one has any control of how this is going to go.

So, let’s take a look at some of the crazy possibilities that could play out.

Cavaliers get the number one pick

On a night they’re playing the Boston Celtics in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers actually have a 2.8 per cent chance of landing the top selection, thanks to the pick being conveyed from the Brooklyn Nets.

Boston, who struck gold on their trade with Brooklyn years ago, passed this year’s Nets unprotected first-rounder on to Cleveland in the Kyrie Irving–Isaiah Thomas swap this past summer, so it will now pay dividends for the Cavs.

Though the Nets weren’t as bad this season as Cleveland would have liked, the pick is likely to be no worse than eight. If it does jump up though, that gives the Cavaliers better ammunition to potentially swing a trade for a star to pair with LeBron James – if he stays – or rebuild with one of the best prospects in the draft if the face of their franchise leaves again.

Celtics leap into top three

Boston’s fortune and embarrassment of riches has been off the charts lately, but there’s a chance the rich can get even richer on Tuesday night.

Thanks to the trade they made with the Philadelphia 76ers ahead of last year’s draft, in which they swapped the number one overall pick for the third selection and a 2018 first-rounder, the Celtics may get another top-three pick to add to their collection of prized assets.

That selection is from the Los Angeles Lakers and because of the protections on it, will only convey to Boston if it lands between two and five, while it would stay with the 76ers if it’s number one or six to 14.

If the Celtics don’t get it this year, the pick will become the Sacramento Kings’ top-one protected selection next year.

The Lakers finished with the 10th-worst record this season, so the Celtics have just a 2.9 per cent chance of the pick being second or third, while Philadelphia have 1.1 per cent odds of it landing first.

With how stacked Boston already are and how quickly their young guys are developing, them receiving a top-three pick would be straight up unfair.

Sixers add another number one pick

The Process may be over, but this is likely the 76ers’ last chance at adding another number one overall pick for quite some time, considering their ascension.

As stated, their odds are just 1.1 per cent, so it probably won’t happen. But if it did, imagine a world where Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are playing alongside Doncic. And that’s not even mentioning how ridiculous that core would be if Markelle Fultz becomes anything close to what he was originally projected as.

And if LeBron isn’t on the way this summer for Philadelphia, they would have an incredible asset to throw at the San Antonio Spurs for Kawhi Leonard.

It feels crazy to already say the 76ers are just a piece away from contending, but between them and Boston, this is the new reality for the Eastern Conference.

Pistons hanging in the balance

The Detroit Pistons are the only team who can lose their own pick in this year’s lottery.

When they traded for Blake Griffin mid-season, Detroit sent a top-four protected first-rounded to the Los Angeles Clippers, who are likely to get the pick after the Pistons finished with the 12th-worst record.

However, there’s a 2.5 per cent chance the Pistons leapfrog into the top three and keep their selection, which would be the ultimate bail-out for a team that may have been too aggressive in settling for mediocrity.